In Baby Boomlet, Number of New High-School Graduates Is Projected to RiseBy JENNIFER JACOBSON Washington
The number of students graduating from high school in the United States will continue to rise steadily over the coming years, reaching a peak of 3.2 million in 2008-9, according to a report released last week by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, along with the College Board and ACT Inc. The report's projections, which cover the
academic years through 2017-18, also show a major shift in the racial profile of new high-school graduates over the next decade, with the number of Hispanic students surging and the number of white graduates continuing to decline. The report predicts that there will be 73 percent more Hispanic students graduating from public high schools in 2014 than in 2002. During the same period, there will be 11 percent fewer white graduates and 6 percent more black graduates. The racial patterns reflect demographic and geographic trends. "For decades families have been going to California," said David A. Longanecker, the commission's executive director. "[We're] now finding white families are leaving California to go elsewhere," primarily to the South and other Western states in search of jobs, he said. The
commission, a 15-state coalition commonly known as Wiche, issues its projections every four or five years to help college officials plan for the future. The estimates, which also include enrollment figures for elementary and secondary schools, are based on birth rates, migration patterns, and school enrollments. This year, for the first time, the group included projections of the family income of future graduates.
Rich and Poor Officials added income projections because the ability of families to pay for a college education is an important force affecting higher-education policy, said Mr. Longanecker, a former top official in the U.S. Education Department. But he said there were "no surprises" in the projections. Although the report contains income estimates through 2013, the researchers said they felt most confident
about projections through 2006-7, the year they used to make comparisons in the report. Wiche expects the growth in the number of high-school graduates from families with higher incomes to outpace the growth of graduates from low-income families. For instance, the number of low-income graduates (those from families earning $20,000 or less per year) will grow from about 438,000 in the Class of 2002 to about 463,000 in 2007, a
rise of 6 percent. The number of graduates in those years from the $20,001-to-$50,000 range will increase from about 885,000 to almost 946,000, or 7 percent. And the number of graduates from families earning $100,001 or more is projected to grow from about 383,100 to 430,000 over roughly the same period, a jump of 12 percent. Among all regions of the United States, the South will have the most graduates from the lowest-income
families in 2006-7. The West will have the most from families in the income range of $20,001 to $50,000 in that year. The Midwest can expect to see higher rates of growth in graduates from higher-income families and lower rates of growth in graduates from lower-income families. Richard Sawyer, assistant vice president for research at ACT, said at a news conference here that the report's findings emphasized the need to
intensify the academic preparation of students, especially minority and low-income students, so they can succeed in college. "One size doesn't fit all," said Howard T. Everson, vice president for academic initiatives at the College Board. "There is diversity across the United States." That diversity varies from state to state. For
instance, Arizona is projected to see its graduating classes grow 55 percent from 2001-2 to 2017-18, with minority students accounting for more than half of its graduates. Massachusetts, however, can expect to see its overall numbers drop by 2 percent, with minority students making up 24 percent of the total. But the nationwide increase in minority graduates
"suggests that affirmative-action programs and programs aimed at increasing diversity will become even more important than they are today," Mr. Everson said. And as the number of low-income students continues to grow, and their high-school graduation rate continues to increase, "programs need to be put in place to subsidize and help students with financial need," he said. Baby Boomers Bottom Out The commission estimates that eight states -- Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming -- and the District of Columbia will have far fewer new high-school graduates in 2017-18 than in 2001-2. The number of new high-school graduates peaked at 3.1
million in 1977, as baby boomers swept through the school systems, and then sank through the 1980s, bottoming out at 2.5 million in the early 1990s. The children of the baby boomers are causing the latest enrollment increases. There were steady increases during most of the 1990s, as well as for the first few years of the 21st century, but Wiche expects enrollment numbers to dip again at the end of this decade. Rapidly growing states, such as Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas, Mr. Longanecker said, will continue to see their enrollments -- and graduating classes -- climb. But while Northeastern states will have modest growth in enrollments, colleges in the region that are building dormitories may find themselves stuck with more bed space than they need in the next 10 years, he said. Copies of the report, "Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, 1988 to 2018," are available for $30 each from Wiche Publications, P.O. Box 9752, Boulder, Colo. 80301-9752; (303) 541-0290. They can also be ordered from the group's Web site (http://www.wiche.edu). | 
